Abstract

Due to rising sea levels caused by global warming, make tens even hundreds of millions of people are going to be homeless, in order to protect the people affected by climate change, we established a CGE model extension model and other models to handle EDPs reasonable placement, etc.

On the scale of the EDPs prediction problem, we use the Logistic model analysis by rising sea levels under different altitudes of indigenous people become EDP probability. The EDPs population estimate under the rising sea level is obtained by connecting the population distribution at all elevations in the world.

For countries to EDPs liability issues, we investigated the main motors of the rise in sea water for global warming, the greenhouse gas emissions associated with a rise in sea level height.

In order to solve the placement of EDPs, we calculate the Sharpley value of the responsibility for the sea level rise of each country based on its cumulative greenhouse gas emissions since 1850. And selected the EDP in moved in the degree of environmental adaptation and affordability of all countries related six important indicators, according to the index weight determination of the EDPs population proportion of countries should be properly placed. Considering EDPs of basic rights and cultural protection problem, we introduce the origin and move between the concept of fitness, the climate in the country, the distance between the countries, the national religious culture origin and move between the fitness of matrix, use the Hungarian Algorithm calculation to solve the biggest fitness matching scheme.

Finally, considering the uncertainty of policy making and implementation, we built a hybrid model of energy economy-environment based on KAYA equation and CGE model, and optimized the combination to get the optimal solution. From the analysis of China, the core is to adapt measures to local conditions.